All predictions are listed in descending order of likelihood.
PICTURE - predicting 8 nominees
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Silver Linings Playbook
Beasts of the Southern Wild
if nine...The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
if ten...Cloud Atlas (surprise!)
DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck, Argo
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
first alternate: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
first alternate: Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
first alternate: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
(This is the toughest category this year; there are at least two other contenders—Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) and Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) who could be as viable as anyone here not named Jessica or Jennifer.)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
(Note that everyone I've predicted for this category already has an Oscar.)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
first alternate: Amy Adams, The Master
(I went back and forth on Adams vs. Smith for the last spot. I really don't think Maggie Smith's performance stood out enough to warrant a nomination here, but I'm trying not to let my own feelings color my predictions.)
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria)
The Intouchables (France)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
War Witch (Canada)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Michael Haneke, Amour
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Chris Terrio, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ol Parker, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
first alternate: Lana Wachowski & Tom Tykwer & Andy Wachowski, Cloud Atlas
ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph
Frankenweenie
Rise of the Guardians
From Up on Poppy Hill
(Absolutely no confidence in this list after Brave.)